As Australians prepare to cast their votes this Saturday, political tensions are nearing a fever pitch with both major parties running a neck-and-neck race to the ballot box.
Here at Faster Horses, we most certainly aren’t immune to the election frenzy. We conducted an independent poll of 1076 eligible Australian voters between the 10th and 11th of May.
One dynamic that immediately stands out are the clear shifts in party loyalty between the last federal election in 2016, and the upcoming one – particularly according to age.
In wake of a record-high surge of young Australians enrolling to vote, the major parties have been keen to target this demographic during the campaign period. However, it seems Liberal promises of new jobs and economic opportunity have proved unconvincing, with a likely 3% swing away from the Coalition among Australians aged 25-34, and no gain for under 24s.
But neither are young folk any more enamoured of Bill Shorten’s Labor than they were in 2016, with the polling data pointing to just a 1% swing to Labor among 18-24 year-olds and a 3% swing against Labor among 25-34 year-olds.
Young voters are aligning more closely with the policies of the Greens party as demonstrated by a 7% swing to The Greens in the 18-24 age group since the previous election – driven largely by concerns about climate change and related environmental issues.
Older Australians, who have traditionally been the secure domain of the Liberals, are also showing strong signs of discontent. Our data show a decrease in Liberal support of 6% and 5% in the 55-64 and 65+ age groups respectively.
But these votes are not flowing to Labor, but rather to a combination of Independents, United Australia Party and other minors.
With the combined primary vote of the 2 majors in Australian politics at an historic low, the finish line of election day can’t come fast enough for ScoMo and Shorten, one of whom may be able to fall over the line with a tiny majority. But another hung parliament seems increasingly likely.