WA election: Barnett needs a preference miracle

Colin Barnett needs a ‘preference miracle’ to hold on to power, our latest polls shows. 

Labor’s primary vote is strengthening, and the Liberal’s weakening – meaning that Barnett will need to receive an extraordinarily high flow of preferences from the minor parties and independents to hang on to power. 

It almost certainly won’t happen. 

What will happen is that there will be a very high primary vote – close to 30% – for non-establishment candidates (that is, non-Liberal, non-Nationals, non-Labor). 

Support for One Nation has slipped several points in the last week, but still remains in double digits. Primary vote for The Greens will also be 10%. 

With Green preferences certain to flow in large numbers to Labor, Barnett is relying on a combination of his One Nation preference deal and a hope of scooping preferences from minor parties and independent candidates. Mathematically possible, but extremely unlikely. 

 As I type, Sportsbet has Labor at $1.17 to win the election. Seems a bit skinny for a 2 horse race? There’s a reason for that.